What Can We Expect from Universal Autonomy Insurance for Financing the Loss of Autonomy? An Evaluation with the Help of a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Xavier CHOJNICKI * Professeur d'économie, LEM-CNRS, Université de Lille ; chercheur associé, Chaire Transitions démographiques, transitions économiques (TDTE) ; chercheur associé, Institut convergences migrations. Contact : xavier.chojnicki@univ-lille.fr.

Lionel RAGOT ** Professeur d'économie, EconomiX, Université Paris Nanterre ; conseiller scientifique, CEPII ; chercheur associé, Chaire TDTE. Contact : lionel.ragot@cepii.fr et lragot@u-paris10.fr.Cet article a déjà été publié sous forme d'un working paper par la Chaire TDTE en août 2020. Les auteurs remercient la Chaire pour l'aide qu'elle a apportée à la réalisation des travaux présentés dans cet article.

The purpose of this study is to understand to what extent introducing compulsory autonomy insurance as an answer to the problem of the loss of autonomy of the elderly could help. This evaluation is made using an overlapping generations macroeconomic general equilibrium model. The advantage of this type of model is that it makes it possible to measure the effects of setting up autonomy insurance, for which we will study different financing methods, both at the macroeconomic and the individual levels. The benchmark scenario (without insurance) is compared to three variants of compulsory autonomy insurance, which draw on the studies done by Forette et al. (2018). All the variants are based on the same elements concerning the amount of coverage: 1,275 euros for people at GIR 1-2 and 925 euros for those at GIR 3-4. Only the financing method differentiates the scenarios being evaluated.