International Demographic Trends and their Economic Consequences

Philippe TRAINAR * Professeur, Cnam (Conservatoire national des arts et métiers) ; directeur, Fondation Scor pour la Science. Contact : ptrainar-external@scor.com.Pour des raisons de volume, ce papier a été raccourci par la REF qui assume seule la responsabilité de ces modifications. Le texte intégral est disponible auprès de l'auteur.

Relying on the United Nations demographic forecasts this articles aims at identifying the world key demographic trends and their economic consequences. Three factors are the determinants of the present demographic evolutions: the demographic structure, the decline of the fertility rate and the population ageing. The differences and convergences at work have significant macroeconomic consequences through the dependency of the inactive part of the population towards the wealth produced by the active one. They should in particular change the international macroeconomic balance through a reduction of the world current accounts imbalances from their highest 1990 and 2000 level. It will induce a greater responsibility of national economic policies in the evolution of these imbalances.